Did Jesus Exist? Reconsidering the Case for Mythicism

The assumption that Jesus of Nazareth was a real historical figure is nearly universal in Western thought. Yet a growing minority of scholars—most notably Dr. Richard Carrier, PhD—argue that this assumption deserves serious scrutiny. Carrier is a historian of antiquity trained at Columbia University and a prominent advocate of the “mythicist” position: the idea that Jesus Christ may have originated not as a real person, but as a mythical, celestial being later historicized by early Christians.

In On the Historicity of Jesus: Why We Might Have Reason for Doubt (2014), Carrier applies Bayesian probability theory to historical evidence and concludes that “the probability Jesus existed is low—maybe as low as 1 in 3” (Carrier, 2014, p. 600). He asserts that the earliest Christian documents, particularly the epistles of Paul, describe a supernatural savior who performs salvific acts in a heavenly realm, not on Earth. Paul, writing decades before the Gospels, shows no knowledge of a recent teacher from Galilee—he never mentions Jesus’s parables, miracles, trial before Pilate, birthplace, or family.

As Carrier puts it in his more accessible follow-up Jesus from Outer Space (2020), “The Jesus that Paul believed in never walked the Earth. He was a celestial being who came down only to the lower heavens to undergo a hidden, spiritual death and resurrection” (Carrier, 2020, p. 9). Paul says Jesus was “made of seed of David according to the flesh” (Romans 1:3), but Carrier argues that this phrasing can be interpreted symbolically, not as confirmation of a literal, earthly life.

Carrier also highlights the suspicious similarities between the Jesus story and earlier pagan myths, such as those of Osiris, Romulus, and Dionysus—all gods or demigods who died and returned from the dead. He contends that these mythic archetypes were reworked into a Jewish context. In On the Historicity of Jesus, he details how early Christians may have initially believed in a heavenly Jesus who communicated through visions and scripture, only later anchoring him in Earthly time and place (Carrier, 2014, pp. 39–43).

What about non-Christian sources? Carrier argues that the oft-cited references to Jesus in the works of Josephus and Tacitus are either late interpolations or based on secondhand Christian hearsay. As he notes, “no contemporary or eyewitness record of Jesus exists,” and the earliest Gospel (Mark) appears to be written in the form of symbolic allegory rather than historical biography (Carrier, 2014, pp. 344–348).

While mainstream scholars generally accept Jesus’s existence, even if stripped of miraculous elements, Carrier challenges this consensus, noting that much of historical Jesus scholarship operates within a framework of unexamined assumptions, often influenced by religious tradition. He calls for a reassessment grounded in skeptical historical methodology.

Ultimately, even if Jesus did exist, the version of him that survives today—the miracle-working, resurrected son of God—is most certainly a myth. But if Carrier is right, perhaps that myth was all there ever was.

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